{"id":1297,"date":"2018-01-25T20:52:45","date_gmt":"2018-01-25T19:52:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/capturly.com\/blog\/?p=1297"},"modified":"2022-04-29T10:08:11","modified_gmt":"2022-04-29T08:08:11","slug":"can-you-predict-the-future-of-your-business","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/capturly.com\/blog\/can-you-predict-the-future-of-your-business\/","title":{"rendered":"Predict the Future of Your Online Business? Impossible.. Without Website Analytics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When it comes to business planning and decision making, the demand for the ability to prospect the future is growing rapidly. With business analytics, companies can get an insight into where are they standing and where they are heading. Data and statistical methods make it possible to understand business performance and the expected (impending) impacts.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Competitive advantage, efficiency and customer satisfaction increase. As if predictive analytics was a miracle tool for companies. In addition to all its benefits, you may have to face some disadvantages.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The goal of this article is to give you a picture of the benefits and disadvantages, so you don\u2019t have to experience everything empirically.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Data only has value <\/span><b>if you know how to deal with it<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. If you look at website analytics, you have a lot of options to collect quantitative data. But, as they say, the devil lies in the details. In the case of website analytics and user experience, this means that you need to collect and process qualitative data also. This is where <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/capturly.com\/features\/scroll-heatmaps\">advanced website analytics tools<\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> come into the picture. If you combine the utility of these tools with the flexibility of predictive analytics, samples and patterns become recognizable. Your next step will be based on a series of insights rather than guesswork.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">|But why do I say \u201cif you combine\u201d?<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Because not every analytics is predictive<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Analytical tools can be used to analyze large amounts of data with complex mathematical and statistical algorithms. But the term \u201canalytics\u201d is used in a very broad way. <\/span><b>PA is a subfield of these methods<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> used to identify future trends and behavior patterns. For example, most of the common tests done by web companies are focusing on the term \u201cvisitor\u201d. They track visitor movements, and how they behave. This is a traffic-driven, one-time relationship with the customers, where the main goal is to determine. The traffic comes from. In a visitor-centered business model, common metrics include &#8220;time spent&#8221; or &#8220;click-through rates&#8221;.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Then there are the users. At first, both might sound the same, yet, users represent a long-term relationship. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Dave McClure (blogger) defined <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/dmc500hats\/startup-metrics-for-pirates-long-version\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">five important steps in the customer lifecycle<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in a user-centered model. <\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Acquisition<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Activation<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Retention<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Referral<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Revenue<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As you can see, acquisition and activation are just the first steps. The real deal starts when the model steps in the Retention phase. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/capturly.com\/blog\/why-customer-retention-rate-is-essential-for-business-and-ux\/\">Retention rate is essential<\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> when it comes to User Experience design.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Estimation, not revelation<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is important, that these solutions do not tell you what will happen in the future. The probability of occurrence of the examined trends and expected events is, however, determined with acceptable accuracy. This allows some headroom for &#8220;what would happen if&#8221; questioning or risk assessment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>|Sounds smart right?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1302 aligncenter\" src=\"\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/gif-of-eddie-murphy-idea.gif\" alt=\"gif of eddie murphy idea\" width=\"492\" height=\"334\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In other words, with the help of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ibm.com\/developerworks\/library\/ba-predictive-analytics2\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">predictive analytical models<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, business users, website owners can analyze the latest data and so-called &#8220;historical facts\u201d as well. This allows them to better understand the mindset and needs of customers, partners. Discover potential risks and opportunities. Predictive analytics uses many techniques to serve the analysis process. They range from <a href=\"https:\/\/justtotaltech.com\/data-mining-techniques\/\">data mining<\/a>, statistical modeling to machine learning. The goal is to improve the accuracy of analysts&#8217; business forecasts.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Predictive Analytics profits from Big Data<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Whether it is real-time or previously stored information. In fact, instead of a historical overview, companies can look ahead and assess the needs of the customer before they actually appear. A wide range of opportunities is well illustrated <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www-03.ibm.com\/software\/products\/en\/category\/predictive-analytics\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by IBM&#8217;s predictive analytics solution site<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Methods of predictive analytics overlap with data mining, Big data or BI (business intelligence) methods at many points.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For example: If a store analyzes information from sales of its former loyalty programs, it will be easier to understand who is most likely to use coupons or purchase promotional offers. By examining their browsing habits with predictive analytics, you can provide a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evalueserve.com\/blog\/predictive-web-analytics-can-help-site-optimization-much\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">custom website experience to your customers<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, providing them with a shopping opportunity that can increase their satisfaction.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Tangible benefits<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another study by IBM shows how big is the interest in predictive analytics: <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.predictiveanalyticsworld.com\/pdf\/YTW03080USEN\/7-Reasons-Predictive-Analytics.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the market grows by 8-10 percent annually<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. It is not surprising as it offers a number of tangible benefits. For example, you can have a surprisingly high competitive advantage such as:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">have access to trends what is unknown to competitors<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">higher sales<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Increase in user, customer retention rates<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">predict risky processes<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">prevent fraud<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The list goes on, while the product and service of the company keep getting better and better.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>Not everything is made out of gold<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1301 aligncenter\" src=\"\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/golden-egg-illustration-gif.gif\" alt=\"illustration of golden egg\" width=\"400\" height=\"300\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"attribution \"><span class=\"shot-byline-user\">Artist:\u00a0<a class=\"url hoverable\" href=\"https:\/\/dribbble.com\/vietmotion\" rel=\"contact\">VietLeDuy<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The picture can only be complete if I mention <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.dataversity.net\/limitations-predictive-analytics-lessons-data-scientists\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the oddities of predictive analytics<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. In some areas, <\/span><b>historical data cannot or may not be inaccurate to draw conclusions<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> about the future. You can not take everything into account. If we work with 1000 variables, then nature creates the 1001th. This means, that <\/span><b>forecasts may have an uncertainty factor<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that can fully cover the estimate. This is described in detail in the so-called <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Black_swan_theory\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Black Swan Theory<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, a renowned financial thinker, formulates in this theory <\/span><b>the mechanism of extremely unlikely events<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that are unforeseeable, mass influencing and can only be explained predictably.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>How can you use Predictive Analytics?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This does not mean that predictive analytics should be abandoned, but rather <\/span><b>the need to find the places of application and methods<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. In fact, <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ngdata.com\/how-predictive-analytics-benefits-business\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">there are way more benefits<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> when it comes to solving problems. For example, it \u00a0can do great service in:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">training companies on market innovations<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">keeping the focus on relevant information<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">can help you discover the challenges of digital marketing and the solutions that can be made<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">can also be used to support targeted marketing campaigns<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">assist the HR department, helping you select a candidate for a certain position<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><b>Conclusion:<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So what is predictive analytics good for? It shows the company&#8217;s development, provides opportunities for continuous learning. If a business decides to \u201cplay by the numbers\u201d then predictive analytics is the ultimate cheat sheet. Especially if your web service and your business model are built around repeatability. This way you are already measuring metrics across the entire customer lifecycle from acquisition to repeat usage and revenue. By using predictive analytics, you can lower your cost of acquiring users. Helps you in ensuring sticky customers, and increasing your revenue, just like Facebook, Marriott, and UPS.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When it comes to business planning and decision making, the demand for the ability to prospect the future is growing rapidly. With business analytics, companies can get an insight into where are they standing and where they are heading. Data and statistical methods make it possible to understand business performance and the expected (impending) impacts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":1300,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[97],"tags":[21,40,42,11,9,61],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.13 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Predict the Future of Your Online Business? Impossible.. Without Website Analytics - Capturly Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Website analytics helps understand business performance and expected impacts. 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